Breaking Down the Field: Boys Soccer Shore Conference Tournament Preview

It is fitting that the most wide-open Shore Conference Boys Soccer Tournament of the last decade has no seeds in the bracket. The last month of group play determined where each of the 27 SCT qualifiers would slot into the bracket, which has created some explosive matchups within the first three days of the tournament.

Since the bracket has no seeds, we’ll rank the teams for you, but not based on the bracket or even according to the Shore Sports Insider rankings. Instead, what you are about to read is a countdown from No. 27 to No. 1, starting with the teams least likely to make a deep run in the tournament and working all the way to the favorite(s) to win the whole thing. Because it is not a straight ranking of the teams, teams that otherwise look like favorites or contenders might appear earlier in the countdown than expected because of the draw they got. On the other hand, there are a few teams that might not have seemed like potential champions a few weeks ago but now find themselves in an advantageous position.

At the bottom of the post, you can find some predictions for the first round but, more importantly, the end of this post signifies the end of the projections and predictions. Starting Wednesday, the SCT starts for real and it is bound to be a memorable one.

The First-Round Longshots

27. Point Pleasant Boro

26. Freehold Township

Freehold Township has been competitive throughout most of the season while trying to overcome a struggle to score goals. That is a bad problem to have against a Colts Neck team that has little problem scoring, although there have been two instances in which opponents have withstood the Colts Neck attack enough to keep them to a single goal. The Patriots actually held Colts Neck to two goals in a 2-0 loss in September, so the Freehold Township defense has experienced what it’s like to deal with the Cougars attack.

Point Boro does not have to deal with Colts Neck in the first round, but the Panthers will be playing a solid Middletown South side that is coming off a week in which the Eagles went toe-to-toe with St. John Vianney, CBA and aforementioned Colts Neck. Point Boro did not win a game in Class A South play and the recent results – a 6-0 loss to Middletown North and a 2-2 draw vs. Pinelands – suggest the Panthers will need a sizable turnaround to take down the Eagles and get any kind of deep SCT run started.

Dangerous, but for how long?

25. Jackson Memorial

24. Ranney

23. Brick Memorial

22. Neptune

21. Raritan

20. Lacey

Every one of the above teams can win its first-round match and at least one of them will since Ranney and Lacey are playing one another. The question for each revolves around staying power: can any of them get to the quarterfinals?

Jackson Memorial and Raritan have stared down some of the Shore’s best teams and either come close to topping them or even, in some cases, earned results. Both have also had some inconsistencies and face difficult draws, particularly Jackson Memorial. The Jaguars have to face Manasquan first and share a bracket quadrant with Colts Neck, Manalapan, Toms River East and Howell. Raritan’s road to the quarterfinals will go through Southern Ocean County, with Southern and potentially Central standing in the way.

Brick Memorial and Ranney played in softer divisions than most of the other teams in the field and faced an occasional out-of-division challenge. Brick Memorial has been one of the Shore’s most improved teams and will face a Holmdel team that has been vulnerable this season, with Marlboro or St. John Vianney awaiting the winner. Ranney will have a chance to beat Lacey, but the Panthers’ lineup has been banged up and Middletown South would be a difficult second game.

Neptune and Lacey both got manageable draws in the first round but will have to level up to win in round two. Both have proven themselves capable, with Lacey taking out a talented Middletown North side in group play and Neptune knocking off St. John Vianney in divisional play.

First-Level Wild Card

19. Red Bank

The Bucs are probably too young and too inexperienced to make a run to the final four, but after running through Howell, Ranney and Shore last week to earn a No. 2 seed in the SCT and a Class B Central division title, they are certainly a hot team entering the tournament. Red Bank opens up at home vs. Neptune and if the Bucs can hold serve, they would face an Ocean squad that has slowed down ever so slightly since beating Red Bank, 3-0, on Sept. 21. Given Red Bank’s improvements, a rematch is probably a good thing for the Bucs, but they will have to get by Neptune first.

Proven Programs Looking for a Spark

18. Wall

17. Holmdel

16. Middletown North

15. Toms River South

All four of the above teams have had winning seasons to this point and all have recent postseason success on their program résumés. Wall is the only one of the four without a win or draw vs. a team currently in the Shore Sports Insider Top 10 but the Crimson Knights have two wins over teams that are close (Central and Rumson-Fair Haven) and a time-tested winning formula.

Wall also has a difficult draw that will require the Knights to beat Middletown North and CBA to reach the quarterfinals. Middletown North is coming off two straight trips to the SCT semifinals and has six starters back from last year’s SCT final four team. The Lions avoided CBA until the semifinals during each of their runs, so drawing the same quadrant of the bracket as the three-time defending champions is a helping of bad luck that the Lions did not have in either of their last two runs. Still, they are a capable side that could put a scare into the Colts if they can get by Wall.

Holmdel has, arguably, the best player in the tournament in Stepan Kapranov and when the Hornets have been on their game, they have looked like a team that can win a championship. Their draw is not ideal – they would have to beat either St. John Vianney or Marlboro if they survive Brick Memorial and CBA is a roadblock to the SCT semifinals – but the Hornets have a player capable of leading them deep into the bracket if they can keep hang close vs. their opponents.

Toms River South showed its potential by playing Toms River North to a 1-1 draw during group play and that is one of the marquee teams standing between the Indians and the SCT semifinals. While potential later-round matchups vs. Toms River North and Ocean are games Toms River South can win, a first-round game vs. Rumson-Fair Haven is one of the tougher opponents any of the host teams will face in round one.

They Beat CBA

14. Rumson-Fair Haven

13. St. John Vianney

These two teams are on the level with the teams from the prior group, but each has a win over the defending champion Colts. That doesn’t do either Rumson or St. John Vianney much good now, but at least both teams have proven they can finish off games against a championship-caliber opponent.

Rumson has also lost one-goal games to Howell, Manalapan and Manasquan and tied Marlboro, the Bulldogs are sufficiently battle-tested. SJV, meanwhile, has its best team since reaching the SCT semifinals in 2014 and will be hungry to get back on the pitch this week after losing to Middletown South two days after the Lancers beat CBA.

The Next-Level Wild Card

12. Howell

Following a 3-1 loss at Central on Thursday, the season was not going Howell’s way. The Rebels were on the verge of crashing out of the SCT in the group stage and sharing a piece of the Class A North public division title. Since then, however, fortune has favored the Rebels. Red Bank beat Shore to give Howell third place in Group C and a spot in the SCT and Marlboro beat Manasquan to leave the Rebels alone atop the list of A North public schools. Now, Howell enters the SCT with a healthier (although still not healthy) lineup and a chance to live up to the preseason No. 1 billing.

So, why are the Rebels not considered among the favorites to win the tournament after reaching the final with a similar core in each of the past two years? Quite simply, the draw is brutal. Howell has what could be considered the hardest road to the championship game, starting with a road game Wednesday against a Manalapan team that might be the best side in the conference. If Howell wins, the Rebels will likely have to tackle No. 1 Colts Neck. They are absolutely capable of beating either team, but having to survive those two games in a span of three days just to reach the quarterfinals is not that short of impossible.

Don’t Let Them Get Hot

11. Manasquan

10. Southern

During the first three weeks of the season, there was a time each of these teams was on the cusp of moving into the No. 1 spot in the Shore Conference rankings. CBA was struggling early, Colts Neck and Manalapan were still proving themselves and Manasquan beat Howell while the Rebels were still No. 1. Since then, both teams have gone through their share of highs and lows but all the while, both teams have remained relatively healthy and plenty dangerous.

Southern lost one-goal games to Toms River North and Manalapan leading into the tournament and also scored a noteworthy win over Shawnee the day after losing to Toms River North. Manasquan took Colts Neck to overtime and beat Howell in the same week, so the Warriors will try to recreate that level of play.

Both teams have senior-heavy rosters with goal-scoring ability, so even with rather difficult draws each way, Manasquan and Southern are teams that can give any title hopeful a problem – so much so that both should be considered title hopefuls.

Hard to Bury

9. Toms River East

Although Toms River East earned a bye through the first round of the tournament, the Raiders did not get any favors with their draw. Either Manasquan or Jackson Memorial will visit Raider Ravine for the round of 16 and if Toms River East survives that, it will likely have to beat one of Manalapan, Colts Neck or Howell to reach the semifinals.

As hard as that road is, the Raiders have proven capable over the last two years. Last year, they crushed Colts Neck in the round of 16 with a lot of players on both sides who are back this year and just this season, the Raiders handed Manalapan its only loss. Even Toms River East’s losses are encouraging: a 2-1, overtime defeat at Central and a 3-2 loss to Toms River North in which the Raiders nearly battled back from a 3-0 deficit. At every turn this season, Toms River East has shown its toughness and resilience and when you throw in excellent goalkeeping with Bobby Calvo and Mike Moore, the Raiders will be hard to eliminate.

Home-Field Heroes?

8. Central

7. Marlboro

Both Central and Marlboro have been on the fringes of the Insider Top 10 for the last three weeks and it appears as though both are peaking at the right time heading into the tournament. Marlboro has its lineup back intact after some injury issues tripped the Mustangs up and it has showed in wins over Lenape and Manasquan. Central came up just short of beating Toms River North in its final divisional game, then finished SCT group play strong by beating Howell and winning Group C.

In addition to playing well, both Central and Marlboro will either be playing at home or close to home all the way to Neptune and the semifinals. Marlboro is guaranteed to be at home through the quarterfinals, which would include a potential match vs. CBA in the quarterfinals. Central, meanwhile, would only have to leave its home field to play Lacey, which is bus ride of under 10 minutes.

The Best Team with the Worst Draw

6. Manalapan

If not for a loss to Toms River East, Manalapan would be the No. 1 team in the rankings heading into the SCT. As it is, the Braves are No. 2 and it is hard to argue that any team in the field is playing better than they are right now. Manalapan tied Colts Neck and has beaten a long list of quality teams: Middletown South, Southern, Toms River North, St. John Vianney, Wall, Middletown North, Rumson-Fair Haven and Jackson Memorial, among others.

Everything about Manalapan’s season suggests the Braves are ready to win the SCT and for them to pull it off, they will have to go through one of the toughest roads to a championship ever. It stats Wednesday with a home game against Howell – a team that reached each of the last two SCT finals and opened the season No. 1 at the Shore. If Manalapan advances, No. 1 Colts Neck is likely next and that game will be in Colts Neck. Toms River East, Manasquan, Toms River North and Ocean are all potential opponents Manalapan could encounter if the Braves survive this week and that would just be to get to the final. With that being said, if Manalapan makes it past Friday, the Braves assume the role of favorite to win the tournament.

Good Teams with Good Draws

5. Middletown South

4. Toms River North

3. Ocean

This trio of teams include two teams with a bye and another who enters the SCT playing at the level of a final four team. Unlike Toms River North and Ocean, Middletown South will have to play on Wednesday, but the Eagles have a draw that sets them up to reach the quarterfinals as long as they can keep up the level of play they have displayed over the last two weeks. The Eagles beat St. John Vianney two days after SJV beat CBA, then lost heartbreakers to both Colts Neck and CBA. If Middletown South can recover from the frustration of those losses, it will be dangerous after going through the experience of last week.

Toms River North will have to ramp back up after a mostly-forgettable week last week. The Mariners needed only to beat Freehold Township on Thursday and they did that, 1-0, to win SCT Group D and earn a bye. The week prior, Toms River North turned back both Southern and Central – once again showing it can thrive in must-win situations against good teams. That is what the next two weeks are all about and despite getting handled by Manalapan and sneaking by Freehold Township last week, the Mariners should be ready.

Ocean is also entering the Shore Conference Tournament coming off some unwanted results. The Spartans missed a chance to win a share of the Class B North title by tying Raritan, then lost to a state-ranked opponent in Newark East Side. That loss against a high-level team should get Ocean refocused for Friday, when the Spartans will host either Red bank or Neptune – two teams the Spartans outscored by a combined 5-0 score in two regular-season wins. With a balanced team, a bye and a favorable draw, Ocean is set up as well as any team to reach the quarterfinals and should match-up well against Toms River North, Toms River South or Rumson-Fair Haven.

The Favorites

2. CBA

1. Colts Neck

For the past three years, there has been only one team on the list of favorites heading into the Shore Conference Tournament and it is the team with the No. 2 next to its name. CBA has only two starters back from its 2023 SCT championship team, which was the first to win three straight titles in program history and just the second to do it in boys SCT history. This version of the Colts has enough going for it to be considered the favorite again this season. The draw is not an easy one – either Middletown North or Wall will be a challenging first opponent and both Marlboro and St. John Vianney have played CBA tough – but the Colts always enter the SCT ready for all comers. It is a different team with a more defensive approach, but the depth and spirit will make the defending champs a tough out.

All that being said, CBA is not the favorite in this space. That distinction belongs to Colts Neck, which has had a quiet couple of weeks leading into the SCT. The Cougars won the game they had to last week, beating Middletown South, 1-0, to win a share of the Class A Central division title. Now, the Cougars and their dynamic duo of Sean and Kyle Moore will try to bring home Colts Neck’s first tournament title in program history. It is a title quest that could easily end on Friday against either Manalapan or Howell, but whichever team survives that cluster will be very hard to beat. Given that Howell and Manalapan will hammer away at each other on Wednesday before the winner heads to Colts Neck, the Cougars have the edge among the trio and that makes them the favorite to win it all.

First-Round Predictions (Home team in italics)

Manasquan 3, Jackson Memorial 1

Manalapan 4, Howell 3 (OT)

Colts Neck 3, Freehold Twp. 0

Rumson-Fair Haven 2, Toms River South 1

Red Bank 2, Neptune 1

Middletown North 1, Wall 0

Marlboro 1, St. John Vianney 1 (Marlboro on penalties)

Holmdel 3, Brick Memorial 1

Southern 4, Raritan 2

Lacey 3, Ranney 0

Middletown South 4, Point Boro 0