Baseball SCT Watch: Projecting the 2025 Shore Conference Tournament Field
With only 10 days until the Shore Conference Tournament field is finalized, it is time to start tracking the potential qualifiers as the May 7 cutoff approaches. The requirements to qualify for the Shore Conference Tournament and the seeding procedure have changed, so let’s start there.
- The SCT field will be determined by NJSIAA power points, which are determined by a formula that combines opponents’ win total and strength of schedule. The formula can be found in the NJSIAA Baseball Tournament rules and regulations.
- The Shore Conference teams will be ranked by power points and the top 24 as of 8 a.m. on May 7 will qualify for the SCT. If a team failed to rank in the top 24 teams by power points, but has clinched an outright Shore Conference division championship by the time of the seeding meeting at 7 p.m. on May 7, that team will qualify for the SCT.
- The teams that qualify for the SCT via power points or by division championship will then be seeded by a seeding committee of seven Shore Conference coaches — one from each of the seven Shore Conference divisions
For the full Shore Conference Tournament rules and regulations, click here.
This year’s Shore Conference Tournament is scheduled to be played within a span of 10 days, with the tournament opening on Saturday, May 10 and concluding on Monday, May 19 with the championship game at ShoreTown Ballpark in Lakewood. Here is the round-by-round schedule.
First Round: Saturday, May 10
Round of 16: Monday, May 12
Quarterfinals: Wednesday, May 14
Semifinals (at Count Basie Park, Red Bank): Saturday, May 17, 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.
Championship (at ShoreTown Ballpark, Lakewood): Monday, May 19, 7 p.m.
Once the participants in this year’s SCT are determined, the teams will be seeded in similar fashion to year’s past, although it remains to be seen how much power points will be used — if at all — at the seeding meeting. Since power points are part of the qualifying process, logic would dictate they are at least a consideration when ranking the teams that qualify, so that is how this projection will operate. With that said, here are the Shore Conference power-point rankings as they stand through games played on Sunday, April 27.
| Shore Rank | Team | PP/Game | NJSIAA Section | Section Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CBA (10-1) | 27.426 | SJ Non-Pub A | 1 |
| 2 | Red Bank Catholic (9-3) | 23.233 | SJ Non-Pub A | 2 |
| 3 | Ranney (8-3) | 18.46 | SJ Non-Pub B | 3 |
| 4 | Ocean (10-2) | 17.838 | CJ2 | 4 |
| 5 | Manasquan (9-3) | 17.78 | CJ2 | 5 |
| 6 | Point Beach (11-1) | 17.66 | CJ1 | 2 |
| 7 | Colts Neck (8-3) | 17.614 | CJ3 | 3 |
| 8 | Toms River East (9-4) | 16.841 | SJ3 | 4 |
| 9 | Brick Memorial (10-4) | 16.427 | CJ3 | 5 |
| 10 | Raritan (9-3) | 15.772 | CJ2 | 10 |
| 11 | Middletown South (6-5) | 15.696 | CJ3 | 6 |
| 12 | Howell (8-6) | 15.619 | SJ4 | 3 |
| 13 | Toms River South (8-3) | 14.803 | SJ3 | 8 |
| 14 | Brick (8-3) | 14.698 | CJ3 | 7 |
| 15 | Central (9-5) | 14.618 | SJ4 | 6 |
| 16 | Rumson-Fair Haven (7-7) | 14.53 | CJ2 | 12 |
| 17 | Holmdel (8-4) | 14.309 | CJ2 | 13 |
| 18 | Freehold Twp. (6-4) | 14.302 | CJ4 | 6 |
| 19 | Monmouth (4-7) | 13.506 | CJ2 | 16 |
| 20 | Shore (8-5) | 13.394 | CJ1 | 6 |
| 21 | Jackson Memorial (7-7) | 13.358 | CJ3 | 10 |
| 22 | Wall (6-6) | 13.252 | CJ2 | 17 |
| 23 | Keansburg (5-1) | 13.209 | CJ1 | 7 |
| 24 | Southern (4-6) | 13.125 | SJ4 | 11 |
| Barnegat (7-5) | 12.76 | SJ2 | 8 | |
| Lacey (6-4) | 12.736 | SJ3 | 13 | |
| Toms River North (3-6) | 12.083 | SJ4 | 13 | |
| St. John Vianney (6-5) | 11.997 | SJ Non-Pub A | 9 | |
| Point Boro (6-6) | 11.437 | CJ2 | 18 | |
| Freehold Boro (4-7) | 11.013 | CJ3 | 13 | |
| Manalapan (5-7) | 10.989 | CJ4 | 12 | |
| Matawan (2-9) | 10.934 | NJ2G3 | 13 | |
| Middletown North (5-7) | 10.593 | NJ2G3 | 15 | |
| New Egypt (3-6) | 9.771 | CJ1 | 13 | |
| Keyport (4-3) | 9.623 | CJ1 | 14 | |
| Red Bank (4-10) | 8.978 | CJ3 | 16 | |
| Henry Hudson (4-4) | 8.613 | CJ1 | 16 | |
| Manchester (2-9) | 8.312 | SJ2 | 16 | |
| Lakewood (4-6) | 8.224 | CJ3 | 17 | |
| Long Branch (5-5) | 8.116 | CJ3 | 18 | |
| Jackson Liberty (3-9) | 7.926 | CJ2 | 19 | |
| Marlboro (2-10) | 7.85 | CJ4 | 19 | |
| Pinelands (2-11) | 7.816 | SJ3 | 18 | |
| St. Rose (1-9) | 7.556 | SJ Non-Pub B | 8 | |
| Neptune (1-9) | 7.199 | CJ3 | 19 | |
| Donovan Catholic (0-11) | 6.834 | SJ Non-Pub A | 12 | |
| Asbury Park (0-6) | 3.187 | CJ1 | 20 |
The projection that follows uses these power-point rankings as a framework, but there are circumstances in which teams with fewer power points can be seeded ahead of teams with more. Those circumstances fall in line with seeding criteria that has been used in years past.
- Head-to-head results
- Wins vs. teams in the field/top 10
- Losses vs. teams outside the field
- Results vs. common opponents
- Division record (comparing teams within the same division)
Keeping those criteria and the above power-point rankings in mind, here is the official Shore Sports Insider projection on April 28. You can consider the first 10 seeds this week’s Shore Sports Insider Top 10. We’ll be back next Monday to reassess and will have one last look on the afternoon of May 7.
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Through games played on April 27
1. Christian Brothers Academy (10-1, 6-1)
Division Wins: Middletown North (2), Ranney (2), Middletown South, Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: At Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: At Brick Memorial, vs. Hun, Holmdel (MCT), vs. Moorestown
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: With one loss (to the No. 2 team by a one-run margin) and the highest power-point average by a comfortable margin, CBA is tracking to be the clear-cut No. 1 seed.
2. Red Bank Catholic (9-3, 5-3)
Division Wins: Manalapan (2), CBA, Middletown South, at Ranney
Division Losses: At CBA, at Middletown South, Ranney
Non-Division Wins: Jackson Memorial, vs. Morris Knolls, South Plainfield, Howell (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: As of the time of this writing, RBC’s lead for the No. 2 spot in power points is even larger than CBA’s lead for No. 1, so the Caseys have a firm hold on No. 2 with less than two weeks to go before the seeding.
3. Ranney (8-3, 6-3)
Division Wins: Marlboro (2), Middletown South (2), at Middletown North, at Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: CBA (2), Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Red Bank (MCT), Middletown North (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: Ranney is settled in as the No. 3 seed at this point, comfortably ahead of the next team in power points and also on the résumé, given that the Panthers’ only losses are to the top two teams in the field.
4. Ocean (10-2, 3-2)
Division Wins: Howell, Matawan, Monmouth
Division Losses: At Matawan, at Monmouth
Non-Division Wins: Manchester, vs. Birdlebough (N.Y.), vs. Tallwood (Va.), vs. Chesterfield (S.C.), Hillsborough, at Middletown South (MCT), at Red Bank
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: In a traditional résumé review, Ocean would likely be closer to No. 10 than No. 1, but the Spartans are sitting at fourth in the Shore Conference in power points to start the week and there is team with a clean body of work to oust them from the top five.
5. Point Pleasant Beach (11-1, 8-0)
Division Wins: Central (2), Jackson Liberty (2), Point Boro (2), St. Rose (2)
Division Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: At Donovan Catholic, at Brick, Donovan Catholic (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Toms River South
Seed Breakdown: Power points don’t take margin of victory or loss into account, so it doesn’t matter that Point Beach’s loss to Toms River South was a 14-4 defeat in five innings. It also would not matter that much in a more traditional seeding of the tournament, as the Garnet Gulls have only slipped up once and are in the running to be the top-ranked public school.
6. Colts Neck (8-3, 6-2)
Division Wins: Matawan (2), Rumson-Fair Haven (2), at Howell, at Monmouth
Division Losses: Howell, Monmouth
Non-Division Wins: Marlboro, Manasquan (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Steinert
Seed Breakdown: Colts Neck’s offense went cold for a stretch of three losses in four games, but the Cougars appear to be back on track after beating Manasquan, 11-0, in the Monmouth County Tournament first round.
7. Manasquan (9-3, 7-1)
Division Wins: Central (2), St. Rose (2), Toms River North (2), Point Boro
Division Losses: At Point Boro
Non-Division Wins: Holmdel, Rumson-Fair Haven (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: Freehold Boro, at Colts Neck (MCT)
Seed Breakdown: A lopsided loss to Colts Neck is cause to place Manasquan at No. 7, which is two spots lower than where a pure power-point ranking would place the Warriors. Two losses to teams not currently in the SCT – Freehold Boro and Point Boro – could drop them even farther down the list, but Manasquan’s power-point lead over the next group is significant enough to keep the Warriors in the top eight.
8. Brick Memorial (10-4, 8-2)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Southern (2), Wall (2), Jackson Memorial, at Toms River East
Division Losses: At Jackson Memorial, Toms River East
Non-Division Wins: Brick, Pinelands (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: CBA, at Central
Seed Breakdown: On just the eye-test and body of work, Brick Memorial might have the strongest case to be the top-ranked public school at the Shore. The power points are not quite there yet, but the Mustangs will have a chance to pick up a big power-point boost when they host undefeated Cherokee this week.
9. Toms River East (9-4, 6-4)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), at Brick Memorial, at Southern, at Wall
Division Losses: Brick Memorial, Jackson Memorial, Southern, Wall
Non-Division Wins: Barnegat, Jackson Liberty (OCT), vs. Rutherford
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: A Sunday win over 10-win Rutherford gave Toms River East a power-point jolt that carried not only carried the Raiders up the list, but also delivered their Class A South rivals some residual power points after the division was lagging behind heading into the weekend. Although Toms River East is ahead of Brick Memorial on power points, the Mustangs deserve to jump the Raiders for winning the Class A South division outright.
10. Raritan (9-3, 7-1)
Division Wins: Freehold Boro (2), Neptune (2), Red Bank (2), Holmdel
Division Losses: At Holmdel
Non-Division Wins: Monmouth, Wall (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: Shore, at Colonia
Seed Breakdown: There are some qualitative arguments to drop Raritan below a couple of the teams behind it on the power point list, but the Rockets have lost just three games and two of them were by a one-run margin. For now, they are a top-10 seed.
11. Middletown South (6-5, 5-4)
Division Wins: Manalapan (2), Marlboro (2), Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: Ranney (2), at CBA, at Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Rumson-Fair Haven (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: Ocean (MCT)
Seed Breakdown: The record is barely over .500, but Middletown South’s losses are all to teams that are in the top four. Throw in a win over Red Bank Catholic and Middletown South has a case to be No. 5, but the power points say otherwise at the moment.
12. Howell (8-6, 5-4)
Division Wins: Shore (2), at Colts Neck, Matawan, Rumson-Fair Haven
Division Losses: Colts Neck, at Matawan, at Ocean, at Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Wins: At Bridgewater-Raritan, St. John Vianney (MCT), Middletown North
Non-Division Losses: At Freehold Twp., at Red Bank Catholic (MCT)
Seed Breakdown: Howell has two wins over Shore, which beat Raritan, so there is an argument for the Rebels to shuffle up to No. 10. If Howell and Raritan are within one spot of one another on the power-point list, the Rebels have enough on their résumé to jump the Rockets.
13. Toms River South (8-3, 6-2)
Division Wins: Manchester (2), Pinelands (2), Barnegat, New Egypt
Division Losses: At Barnegat, at New Egypt
Non-Division Wins: Point Beach, Point Boro (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Wall
Seed Breakdown: The Indians are riding a six-game winning streak heading into the week and the biggest of those six wins was their 14-4 win over Point Beach that has Toms River South in position to host a first-round SCT game. Given Toms River South’s 6-0 record and 58-9 aggregate score at home, that is no minor detail.
14. Central (9-5, 3-5)
Division Wins: St. Rose (2), Toms River North
Division Losses: Manasquan (2), Point Beach (2), at Toms River North
Non-Division Wins: Lacey, Freehold Boro, at Pinelands, Brick Memorial, Red Bank, New Egypt (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: Central is currently behind Brick on power points, but the Golden Eagles’ win over Brick Memorial compared to Brick’s 14-4 loss to the Mustangs is reason enough for Central to make that jump should the conditions on May 7 look similar for both teams.
15. Brick (8-3, 5-0)
Division Wins: Manchester (2), Lacey, New Egypt, Pinelands
Division Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: At Jackson Memorial, vs. Bandys (N.C.), Toms River North (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: Point Beach, at Brick Memorial, Austintown-Fitch (Oh.)
Seed Breakdown: Brick’s best win is over Jackson Memorial, which would likely carry more weight in a conventional seeding setting. In this format, Jackson Memorial is a bubble team with a .500 record, so the Green Dragons will be looking to beef up their power-point profile in the next 10 days.
16. Rumson-Fair Haven (7-7, 4-4)
Division Wins: Shore (2), Howell, Monmouth
Division Losses: Colts Neck (2), at Howell, at Monmouth
Non-Division Wins: Point Boro, at Red Bank, Marlboro
Non-Division Losses: At Manasquan (MCT), at Middletown South (MCT), Caldwell
Seed Breakdown: The Bulldogs are in position to earn a home game and will have two major power-point opportunities against Ocean before the cutoff. They also just got a boost to their rotation, with sophomore Red Bank Catholic transfer Hunter Beattie now eligible to pitch.
17. Holmdel (8-4, 6-2)
Division Wins: Freehold Twp. (2), Neptune (2), Raritan, St. John Vianney
Division Losses: At Raritan, at St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: St. Rose, Matawan (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Manasquan, at CBA (MCT)
Seed Breakdown: The Hornets have a win over Raritan and still hold a shot at the Class C North division title with four division games left to play. They also own a season sweep of Freehold Township, which clears Holmdel to stay ahead of the Patriots should Freehold Township win the power-point battle.
18. Freehold Township (6-4, 5-3)
Division Wins: Freehold Boro (2), St. John Vianney (2), at Neptune
Division Losses: Holmdel (2), Neptune
Non-Division Wins: Howell
Non-Division Losses: At Roxbury
Seed Breakdown: A loss to Neptune (1-9) gives some teams below Freehold Township a chance to climb over the Patriots in the seeding room, but the difference between Freehold Township and the next closest team (other than Holmdel) is almost a full power point. That’s enough to keep Freehold Township at 18, in the hunt for a first-round home game.
19. Shore (8-5, 4-4)
Division Wins: Matawan (2), Monmouth (2)
Division Losses: Howell (2), Rumson-Fair Haven (2)
Non-Division Wins: At Pinelands, at Raritan, at Matawan (MCT), Long Branch
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank (MCT)
Seed Breakdown: Since losing four straight to fall to 1-4, Shore has won seven of eight, including a win over nine-win Raritan. The rest of the wins are vs. teams with losing records (three vs. Matawan and two vs. Monmouth) and to 5-5 Long Branch, which leave the Blue Devils with some work to do to earn a home game. Those two wins over Monmouth place Shore ahead of the Falcons, despite Monmouth’s slight edge in power points.
20. Monmouth (4-7, 3-5)
Division Wins: At Colts Neck, Ocean, Rumson-Fair Haven
Division Losses: Shore (2), Colts Neck, at Ocean, at Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Wins: St. John Vianney (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: St. Rose (MCT), at Raritan
Seed Breakdown: The Falcons are the one of two teams in the field with a losing record and they are a full three games below .500. Wins over two teams in the top 10 and another vs. a team in the top 16 make up for the lack of quantity.
21. Jackson Memorial (7-7, 7-3)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Southern (2), at Brick Memorial, Toms River East, Wall
Division Losses: Brick Memorial, at Toms River East, at Wall
Non-Division Wins: None
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank Catholic, vs. Randolph, Brick, Southern (OCT)
Seed Breakdown: Sunday’s loss to Southern puts Jackson Memorial in danger of missing the SCT, but the Jaguars also got a boost from the residual points that came with Toms River East’s win over Rutherford. The Jaguars are out of the OCT this week and done with their division games, so they have an opportunity to engineer their schedule to their liking, although options within the Shore Conference may be limited.
22. Wall (6-6, 5-5)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Jackson Memorial, Southern, at Toms River East
Division Losses: Brick Memorial (2), at Jackson Memorial, at Southern, Toms River East
Non-Division Wins: Toms River South
Non-Division Losses: At Raritan (MCT)
Seed Breakdown: Wall was the first team out heading into Sunday, but Toms River East’s win over Rutherford catapulted the Crimson Knights into the field at No. 22. A game vs. rival Manasquan on Monday is another great opportunity for the Crimson Knights to climb.
23. Southern (4-6, 3-6)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic, Toms River East, Wall
Division Losses: Brick Memorial (2), Jackson Memorial (2), at Toms River East, at Wall
Non-Division Wins: At Jackson Memorial (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: Sunday’s Ocean County Tournament win at Jackson Memorial was enough to bump the Rams into the field as the second of two teams with a losing record to rank in the top 24. With a win over a team in the top 10 and no losses to teams outside the top 24, that’s enough to jump Keansburg, which still owns the edge in power points over Southern.
24. Keansburg (5-1, 5-1)
Division Wins: Lakewood (2), at Asbury Park, Henry Hudson, at Keyport
Division Losses: At Henry Hudson
Non-Division Wins: None
Non-Division Losses: None
Seed Breakdown: The Titans still have four division games left to play before the Coastal division title is decided, but they will have a chance to qualify for the SCT one way or another. With two wins over Long Branch this week, Keansburg could very well cross both goals off its list.
Shore Conference Tournament Pairings
Opening Round
(24) Keansburg at (9) Toms River East
(23) Southern at (10) Raritan
(22) Wall at (11) Middletown South
(21) Jackson Memorial at (12) Howell
(20) Monmouth at (13) Toms River South
(19) Shore at (14) Central
(18) Freehold Twp. at (15) Brick
(17) Holmdel at (16) Rumson-Fair Haven
Round of 16
(17) Holmdel/(16) Rumson-Fair Haven at (1) CBA
(18) Freehold Twp./(15) Brick at (2) Red Bank Catholic
(19) Shore/(14) Central at (3) Ranney
(20) Monmouth/(13) Toms River South at (4) Ocean
(21) Jackson Memorial/(12) Howell at (5) Point Beach
(22) Wall/(11) Middletown South at (6) Colts Neck
(23) Southern/(10) Raritan at (7) Manasquan
(24) Keansburg/(9) Toms River East at (8) Brick Memorial
