2026 Boys Basketball SCT Watch: The Bubble Teams
The latest update to the Shore Conference Tournament Watch begins with an apology. In assessing the teams that were still alive to make the Shore Conference Tournament, I failed to detect a pulse on a team that still had a heartbeat.
After its win over Ocean Thursday night, Matawan is very much alive for a spot in the Shore Conference Tournament and while the Huskies will need some help, the scenario that includes them in the field is not so far-fetched. So to Matawan’s players, coaches and fans: I am sorry for sending you off to a premature burial. Fortunately, the casket has not yet been lowered.
Matawan is one of four teams current outside the top 24 in the power-point rankings that still have a chance to qualify for the Shore Conference Tournament. Three of those four teams can climb into the top 24, while Brick can qualify as a 25th team by clinching a share of the Class C South division championship despite being mathematically eliminated from reaching the top 24.
While three teams — Matawan, Pinelands and Red Bank — currently on the outside are still alive, three teams currently in the top 24 have yet to officially qualify. Southern Regional at 21 is the lowest-ranked team that is safe, according to the current strength-of-schedule multipliers. Toms River South, Toms River East and Henry Hudson are in for now, but still have some work to do (or, in some cases, work to be done for them).
The NJSIAA’s strength-of-schedule multiplier — referred to on NJ.com as OOWP — is the only variable in the power-point equation that subject to change on a daily basis, which means the today’s math could look different on both Saturday and, more importantly, Sunday morning. What follows in the rest of this post is based on the current multipliers for each team and although any changes to those numbers typically result in very subtle changes to the final power-point numbers, subtle changes could prove significant if certain scenarios come to pass.
Below are all of the clinching scenarios for each of the Shore Conference’s seven “bubble teams.” First, here is the updated power points list through Thursday’s games.
| Team | Power Points | Section Seed |
| CBA (19-3) | 38.999 | SCT |
| Wall (17-0) | 33.742 | SCT |
| Red Bank Catholic (16-5) | 32.683 | SCT |
| Marlboro (15-4) | 29.944 | SCT |
| Howell (16-4) | 29.547 | SCT |
| Point Beach (17-5) | 28.242 | SCT |
| Ocean (14-8) | 26.069 | SCT |
| Manasquan (11-8) | 25.777 | SCT |
| Rumson-Fair Haven (14-7) | 25.355 | SCT |
| Freehold Twp. (11-8) | 24.869 | SCT |
| Central (14-6) | 24.799 | SCT |
| Ranney (11-7) | 24.417 | SCT |
| Jackson (13-4) | 24.398 | SCT |
| Shore (15-4) | 23.724 | SCT |
| Holmdel (11-5) | 22.806 | SCT |
| Monmouth (14-6) | 22.286 | SCT |
| Point Boro (12-7) | 22.1 | SCT |
| Colts Neck (11-8) | 22.071 | SCT |
| Middletown South (12-8) | 21.978 | SCT |
| Brick Memorial (12-8) | 21.974 | SCT |
| Southern (10-8) | 20.944 | SCT |
| Toms River South (11-10) | 20.145 | SCT |
| Toms River East (9-9) | 19.185 | SCT |
| Henry Hudson (14-6) | 19.174 | SCT |
| Red Bank (7-14) | 19.129 | Coaches Cup |
| Pinelands (13-4) | 18.096 | Coaches Cup |
| Matawan (9-11) | 17.573 | Coaches Cup |
| Toms River North (7-13) | 17.084 | Coaches Cup |
| St. Rose (4-18) | 15.895 | Coaches Cup |
| Brick (9-11) | 15.868 | Coaches Cup |
| Manalapan (7-13) | 15.582 | Coaches Cup |
| St. John Vianney (5-17) | 15.1 | Coaches Cup |
| Barnegat (9-10) | 14.029 | Coaches Cup |
| Donovan Catholic (5-11) | 14.017 | Coaches Cup |
| Middletown North (5-15) | 13.844 | Coaches Cup |
| Keansburg (10-8) | 13.839 | Coaches Cup |
| Neptune (6-12) | 13.559 | Coaches Cup |
| Freehold Boro (6-14) | 13.039 | Coaches Cup |
| Raritan (8-11) | 12.935 | Coaches Cup |
| Keyport (10-10) | 12.281 | Coaches Cup |
| New Egypt (8-10) | 10.925 | Coaches Cup |
| Long Branch (4-16) | 9.13 | Coaches Cup |
| Manchester (5-13) | 8.948 | Coaches Cup |
| Lacey (2-16) | 7.947 | Coaches Cup |
| Lakewood (1-16) | 6.527 | Coaches Cup |
| Asbury Park (0-14) | 6.03 | Coaches Cup |
DISCLAIMER: The following clinch scenarios for the seven teams on the bubble are based on power-point data updated on NJ.com the morning of Feb. 6. Shore Sports Insider does not participate in the updating of power points, nor does anyone employed by SSI fully understand the formula, specifically the calculation of the OOWP.
Each bullet point below represents a single clinch scenario. Any clinch scenario that requires multiple results is listed within a given bullet point.
Toms River South
Remaining Game: Friday at Point Boro
- Win vs. Point Boro
- One loss by any of Henry Hudson, Pinelands or Toms River East
Toms River East
Remaining Game: Friday at Brick Memorial
- Win vs. Brick Memorial
- Two of the following: Red Bank loss to Manalapan; Henry Hudson loss to New Egypt; Pinelands loss to New Egypt
Henry Hudson
Remaining Game: Saturday vs. New Egypt
- Win vs. New Egypt
- All of the following: Red Bank loss to Manalapan; Pinelands loss to New Egypt; Matawan loss to Pinelands*
Red Bank
Remaining Game: Friday at Manalapan (suspended game; Manalapan leads, 17-7)
- Win vs. Manalapan PLUS two of the following: one Pinelands loss; Henry Hudson loss vs. New Egypt; Toms River East loss vs. Brick Memorial
Pinelands
Remaining Games: Friday at New Egypt; Saturday at Matawan
- Wins vs. both New Egypt and Matawan PLUS a loss by any one of Toms River South, Toms River East or Henry Hudson.
- Win vs. New Egypt PLUS all of the following: Red Bank loss to Manalapan; Toms River East loss to Brick Memorial; Henry Hudson loss to New Egypt
- Win vs. Matawan PLUS both of the following: Red Bank loss to Manalapan; Henry Hudson loss to New Egypt
- Win vs. New Egypt PLUS Brick loss vs. Lacey
Matawan
Remaining Game: Saturday vs. Pinelands
- Win vs. Pinelands PLUS two of the following: Red Bank loss to Manalapan; Henry Hudson loss to New Egypt; Toms River East loss to Brick Memorial
Brick
Remaining Games: Friday vs. Lacey
- Win vs. Lacey PLUS Pinelands loss to New Egypt
*- Henry Hudson would still trail Pinelands, 19.19-19.174, in the above scenario, but that is close enough that a change in OOWP could result in Henry Hudson passing Pinelands. If the OOWP does not shift in Henry Hudson’s favor, it will have to win vs. New Egypt to qualify.
