NJSIAA Boys Basketball Tournament Preview: The Shore in Group 3

NJSIAA Tournament: Group III Playoff Preview

A year ago, the Group III Tournament in Central and South Jersey appeared to be anybody’s game at the outset of the tournament and it was Freehold Boro that seized on the opportunity and made it all the way to the Group III championship game after starting the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in Central Group III.

This year’s Group III field in Central and South Jersey looks awfully similar to last year’s field, only the roles have reversed between the Central and South sections. A year ago, Mainland was positioned as the favorite to emerge from the Central-South portion of the Group III Tournament and the Mustangs did indeed live up to those expectations by winning the South Jersey section. Freehold Boro, however, spoiled their plans by beating Mainland in the Group III semifinals before running into a Ramapo juggernaut in the final.

This time around, Red Bank appears ready to play the role that Mainland played last season: the battle-tested, senior-led, 20-win team with a No. 1 seed and a chip on its shoulder from a year ago. The Bucs lost the Central Group III championship to Freehold Boro in their gym and return several key players from that team as they go for their first sectional title since 1993.

South Jersey, meanwhile, has the more vulnerable top seed, although it may not be as deep with contenders as Central Jersey was a year ago. Ocean City and Timber Creek could very well battle their way to the final as the top two seeds, but neither look as formidable as Mainland was last year. Then again, that did not get Mainland to the state final, so Ocean City and Timber Creek have as good of a shot as any other team in Central or South Jersey to be playing at Rutgers University on the final week of the season.

Now for a closer look at the two Group III sections.

Central Jersey Group III

Shore Teams in the Field: No. 1 Red Bank, No. 4 Colts Neck, No. 8 Middletown North, No. 9 Freehold Boro, No. 10 Jackson Memorial, No. 11 Brick Memorial, No. 12 Neptune, No. 15 Middletown South, No. 16 Matawan
Top Seed: Red Bank
Defending Champion: Freehold Boro
Favorite: Red Bank. The Bucs will be at home throughout the tournament and while there are some potential difficult matchups on their chase for a sectional title, they have played like a more complete, more prepared and hungrier team than the one that lost to Freehold Boro in last year’s Central Group III final.

Dark Horse: Jackson Memorial. Freehold Boro won the section as a No. 7 seed last year and is capable of doing so as the No. 9 seed this year, but that would not be a shock considering the Colonials have three key players back from that championship team. Jackson Memorial would be the bigger surprise, but a Jaguars run to the final is not at all far-fetched. Jackson Memorial has a dynamite playmaker in George Boley and a supporting cast with some size, shooters and athleticism – plus a coach in Randy Holmes who led Lakewood to a pair of sectional titles during his stint on the Piners sideline, never mind his accomplishments as all-time great player on the court at Lakewood.

Bracket Breakdown: Central Jersey Group III was a wide-open field a season ago, which allowed Freehold Boro to get hot and win its first sectional title in 51 years. The Central section in Group III tilts more heavily to the top seed this season, with Red Bank boasting a better interior game and even more senior leadership than it had a year ago. Still, the Bucs are no lock to bring home their first title in more than 30 years thanks to the presence of threats like No. 2 Burlington Township, No. 6 Ewing and Freehold Boro.

Freehold Boro is a team to watch out for a as first-round road team that can win the section again, but the Colonials do have a challenging draw. Middletown North hosts Freehold Boro in round one and has the scoring to give the Colonials problems. Freehold Boro is likely the team with the higher ceiling, but Middletown North is more than capable of making Freehold Boro’s title defense a quick one.

No. 4 Colts Neck is also on the same side of the bracket as Red Bank and is hoping for a second crack at the Bucs after Red Bank beat the Cougars in Colts Neck’s season-opener. Top scorer Lukas Sloan was slowed by a pair of nagging injuries heading into the Shore Conference Tournament but has looked more like himself leading into the NJSIAA Tournament.

Brick Memorial is coming off a Coaches Cup championship and will now have to navigate a tough draw in the postseason – nothing new for the Mustangs after they got stuck in the same division with St. Rose and Manasquan this season. That should have them prepared to take their swings at No. 6 Ewing and, if that goes well enough, at No. 3 Westampton Tech.

The Shore also has the last two seeds in this section and both have had their moments this season. Middletown South reached the Coaches Cup final and battled the likes of Red Bank, Rumson-Fair Haven, Holmdel and Red Bank Catholic during the year, plus would avoid Red Bank until the final. Matawan was not so lucky, as the Huskies will be at Red Bank in round one. Life without 6-foot-7 beast Jayden Elijah – who left Matawan early to get his football and academic career at Rutgers started – has gotten a little easier as the Huskies have adjusted, but they are not as dangerous in a tournament setting without their big man.

Championship Prediction: Red Bank over Burlington Twp. After tasting defeat on its home floor in last year’s sectional final, expect the Bucs to be a motivated, focused team. The offense is more dynamic, sometimes sacrificing the balance of last year’s scoring to feed Ryan Fisher or Zayier Dean, but Red Bank still has a deep stable of scorers and contributors. Throw in a much better rebounding unit and this should be Red Bank’s year.

Round-by-Round Predictions

First Round
(1) Red Bank over (16) Matawan
(9) Freehold Boro over (8) Middletown North
(5) Hopewell Valley over (12) Neptune
(4) Colts Neck over (13) Pemberton
(3) Westampton Tech over (14) Northern Burlington
(6) Ewing over (11) Brick Memorial
(10) Jackson Memorial over (7) Lawrence
(2) Burlington Twp. over (15) Middletown South

Quarterfinals

(1) Red Bank over (9) Freehold Boro
(4) Colts Neck over (5) Hopewell Valley
(3) Westampton Tech over (6) Ewing
(2) Burlington Twp. over (10) Jackson Memorial

Semifinals

(1) Red Bank over (4) Colts Neck
(2) Burlington Twp. over (3) Westampton Tech

Championship

(1) Red Bank over (2) Burlington Twp.

South Jersey Group III

Shore Teams in the Field: No. 11 Pinelands, No. 16 Toms River East
Top Seed: Ocean City
Defending Champion: No. 15 Mainland
Favorite: Ocean City. South Jersey Group III has seen better days when it comes to the overall talent of the field. At 24-3 overall, the top-seeded Red Raiders have had a season worthy of a No. 1 seed in their section, but there are not many apparent threats elsewhere in the field.

Dark Horse: Mainland. Without a lot of strong favorites in the section and with Ocean City on the opposite side of the bracket, the defending champs have a chance to make a serious run at a repeat despite entering the tournament with an unsightly 5-20 record. Mainland played a quality schedule and lost several close games to strong opponents, so while this is nowhere near the same team that won South Jersey Group III a year ago, they are capable of going on a run if they can somehow knock off No. 2 Timber Creek in round one.

Bracket Breakdown: The door is open for somebody in South Jersey to step through, particularly on the side of the bracket opposite Ocean City. Timber Creek is a solid No. 2 seed and still the likely finalist from that side of the bracket, but the field goes downhill after that, starting with Moorestown drawing the No. 3 seed despite a 10-17 record.

Pinelands is the Shore’s top team in the section at No. 11 and the Wildcats have a mix of senior leadership and contributions from its younger players that can be dangerous. Coach Fred Johnson has had his team ready to play every night and a run to the sectional semifinals might not be so unrealistic. Toms River East is the other qualifier from the Shore in South Group III and while the Raiders got a tough draw with Ocean City in the first round, they are a young, freshman-driven team that will take a lot from the experience.

Championship Prediction: Ocean City over Timber Creek. There are no dominant teams in the field, but there are also no clear candidates to bust the bracket either. Cherry Hill West could be a threat as a No. 7 seed if the Lions were healthy, but top scorer Quinn Gibson has not played since the eighth game of the season due to a knee injury. As it stands, Ocean City looks like the clear favorite among this group, but the Red Raiders are not untouchable.

Round-by-Round Predictions

First Round
(1) Ocean City over (16) Toms River East
(8) Seneca over (9) Shawnee
(12) Highland over (5) Delsea
(4) Absegami over (13) Triton
(3) Moorestown over (14) Clearview
(6) Winslow over (11) Pinelands
(7) Cherry Hill West over (10) Deptford
(2) Timber Creek over (15) Mainland

Quarterfinals

(1) Ocean City over (8) Seneca
(4) Absegami over (12) Highland
(6) Winslow over (3) Moorestown
(2) Timber Creek over (7) Cherry Hill West

Semifinals

(1) Ocean City over (4) Absegami
(2) Timber Creek over (6) Winslow

Championship

(1) Ocean City over (2) Timber Creek