NJSIAA Boys Basketball Tournament Preview: The Shore in Group 2

NJSIAA Tournament: Group II Playoff Preview

The Group II postseason has been very good to the Shore Conference in recent years, while also being very tantalizing as well. Since the 2012-13 season, the Shore Conference has won 10 of the 11 contested Central Jersey Group II Tournaments, with Manasquan winning five, Rumson-Fair Haven three and one each to Lakewood and Matawan.

Manasquan and Rumson-Fair Haven have combined for nine sectional titles between them and Manasquan has won a sectional title in five consecutive tournaments, with the Warriors winning a Central Jersey Group III championship in 2022 and Rumson winning the Central Group II section that same year. The only reason Manasquan is not chasing its seventh straight sectional title is because there was no NJSIAA Tournament during the 2021, COVID-shortened season.

Despite the Shore winning a sectional title in Group II in 10 out of the last 11 tournaments, only once in those 10 championship runs has that Shore sectional champion reached the overall Group II final. Camden has been the Shore’s tormentor in most of those losses, with the Panthers ending the season of a Shore Conference sectional champion in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2022 and 2024. Haddonfield, meanwhile, ended Rumson’s season in 2018 and Manasquan’s run in 2019.

Manasquan’s last three trips to the Group II semifinals have been particularly noteworthy. The Warriors defeated Middle Township in 2023 on the way to the program’s first ever overall state title. Just before the start of the state tournament, Camden was disqualified from participating due to a benches-clearing brawl against rival Camden Eastside in the Camden County Tournament championship game. That suspension came two years after Camden and Manasquan were supposed to square off in the Group II semifinal in Toms River as two of the top five teams in the state, but the game was canceled and the NJSIAA ultimately canceled the entire remainder of the NJSIAA Tournament due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last year was the most dramatic chapter in the Shore-vs.-Camden struggle. Manasquan took a 13-point lead into the fourth quarter against a heavily-favored two-loss Camden team, only to watch the Panthers outscore the Warriors, 14-0, over the first 7:55 of the fourth quarter to take a 46-45 with five seconds to go. Manasquan then went the length of the court and Griffin Linstra scored on a putback at the buzzer that he released with 0.5 seconds showing on the clock. The referees initially counted the winning basket, but then conferred with one another after being confronted by a Camden assistant coach and overturned the call. The basket was discounted, Camden was awarded the victory and went on to win its second overall state title in the past three seasons.

The pain of that loss has resulted in a Manasquan team that has been locked in from the start this year and will head into these state playoffs as a team on a mission. Rumson, however, has its own redemption tour to pursue, while Camden will be out to prove that they are a deserving champion this season.

Here is a closer look at both the Central and South sections of Group II.

Central Jersey Group II

Shore Teams in the Field: No. 1 Manasquan, No. 2 Rumson-Fair Haven, No. 3 Holmdel, No. 5 Wall, No. 11 Point Pleasant Boro, No. 15 Raritan, No. 16 Ocean
Top Seed: Manasquan
Defending Champion: Manasquan
Favorite: Manasquan. After its run of six straight appearances in Shore Conference Tournament final was snapped last week, Manasquan turns its attention to extending its streak of consecutive sectional championships to six. As the No. 1 seed in the section and with a win at Rumson early in the season, Manasquan is the clear favorite, although not necessarily a heavy favorite. Rumson took the Warriors to overtime earlier this year and were two minutes from winning at Manasquan last year before it all fell apart. If not for the baggage with which Manasquan has saddled Rumson, it would be fair to call the top two seeds co-favorites. As it is, Manasquan remains the favorite until Rumson breaks through and beats the Warriors.

Dark Horse: Point Boro. There are two ways to look at the question of identifying a bracket dark horse. Is it simply a team that is on the road in round one that can make a run, or is there room for interpretation if we are trying to find an unexpected champion. Under the former terms, Point Boro best fits the bill. The Panthers have had an up-and-down season, but played a grueling division schedule that included two games each vs. St. Rose and Manasquan and have looked sharp in their two games since losing to Middletown South in the Coaches Cup quarterfinals. Point Boro has a mix of senior leadership, with some major production from non-seniors in sophomore Hunter Hynes and junior Jovin Steinmetz. That should be enough to seriously challenge No. 6 A.L. Johnson – a team that benefited from a weak regular-season schedule to go 21-3 – and, perhaps, give Holmdel a test in the sectional quarterfinals.

Point Boro is the best bet to win a round as a double-digit seed, but which team outside Manasquan or Rumson can win the title? That distinction likely belongs to Holmdel, and while a No. 3 seed winning a section title is not at all surprising under most circumstances, it would qualify as an upset in Central Jersey Group II. Despite some excellent postseason showings in recent years, Holmdel has not been able to figure out Rumson or Manasquan, but the Hornets have the capacity to do so this year. They held a double-digit lead on Rumson in the first meeting between the teams and lost by nine at Rumson in the second of the two division games. Holmdel has not faced Manasquan this season, but should the Hornets get a shot at the Warriors in the final, it will have already been a surprise run to the final with a chance to shock the state.

Bracket Breakdown: This bracket is very likely to come down to Rumson at Manasquan again in the championship game, but there are some matchups to watch along the way, especially with seven Shore teams in the field.

Two of those Shore teams will have to face one of Manasquan or Rumson in the first round. Ocean drew Manasquan in round one, while Raritan will face Rumson on the road in Thursday’s opening round. Ocean has a surging junior scorer in Aidan Saint Louis (24.5 points per game in Ocean’s last 11 games and 29.4 in its last five) while Raritan has gained valuable experience since starting on a rebuild last season, but neither poses much of a threat to the two favorites in round one.

Wall, meanwhile, has a legitimate chance to reach the sectional semifinals and give the Shore Conference all four spots in the Central Group II final four. The Crimson Knights are one win shy of a 20-win season that already includes a Class B Central division championship. Wall boasts a solid mix of seniors and juniors who play well together and will be a tough matchup for No. 4 Delaware Valley should both Wall and Delaware Valley win their playoff openers. Wall had to share a division with Manasquan for each of the past four seasons and has played its local rival at least once in each of the past eight seasons, so there is familiarity there despite the fact the two teams have not met yet this season. Should Wall win its first two games, it will make it nine straight seasons facing Manasquan and this matchup vs. the Warriors would be well-earned.

An out-of-area team with some postseason chops is No. 9 Robbinsville and were the Ravens the No. 10 seed instead of the No. 9, they could potentially be dangerous. Robbinsville is two years removed from reaching the Central Group III final and made it to the Colonial Valley Conference semifinals this year. Rumson blasted Robbinsville, 69-35, during the regular season and even though the Ravens were down a starter, that suggests they likely don’t have the firepower to take down Manasquan in the sectional quarterfinals.

Championship Prediction: Manasquan over Rumson. When the regular season concluded with Rumson as the second-place team in the Shore Conference Class A Coastal division behind Red Bank Regional and the No. 6 seed in the Shore Conference Tournament, the Bulldogs turned the page and honed in on two objectives: beat Red Bank in the Shore Conference Tournament and beat Manasquan in the Central Group II final.

The Bulldogs already checked the first objective off the list by knocking off Red Bank in the SCT quarterfinals after losing two regular-season games to the rival Bucs. Now, the Bulldogs will try to earn one more shot against Manasquan – a team that stunned Rumson with a comeback in the final two minutes of last year’s 36-30 sectional-final meat-grinder, then rallied to beat the Bulldogs in their own gym in a December overtime classic.

Rumson has not shot the ball well in high-profile games this season, but the Bulldogs have standout athleticism and play with exceptional effort, so at the very least, they are a hard team to put away. Manasquan also shares all of those distinctions, but the Warriors also have the distinction of winning five sectional titles in a row and have not lost to a Shore Conference team outside of St. Rose this season. Throw in the privilege of hosting the potential final and the edge remains with Manasquan.

Round-by-Round Predictions

First Round
(1) Manasquan over (16) Ocean
(9) Robbinsville over (8) Delran
(5) Wall over (12) South River
(4) Delaware Valley over (13) Bordentown
(3) Holmdel over (14) Roselle
(11) Point Boro over (6) A.L. Johnson
(10) Spotswood over (7) Metuchen
(2) Rumson-Fair Haven over (15) Raritan

Quarterfinals
(1) Manasquan over (9) Robbinsville
(5) Wall over (4) Delaware Valley
(3) Holmdel over (11) Point Boro
(2) Rumson-Fair Haven over (10) Spotswood

Semifinals
(1) Manasquan over (5) Wall
(2) Rumson-Fair Haven over (3) Holmdel

Championship
(1) Manasquan over (2) Rumson-Fair Haven

South Jersey Group II

Shore Teams in the Field: No. 9 Barnegat
Top Seed: Camden
Defending Champion: Camden
Favorite: Camden. After graduating two high-major recruits who transferred to Camden from Memphis, the Panthers have spanned the state and the country to add three more impact transfers this season: David Munro, Torrey Brooks Jr. and Aiden Gazaway. Munro is from Neptune, started his career at Bergen Catholic, played the 2023-24 season at College Achieve in Asbury Park, then made the move to Camden for his senior season. Brooks Jr. is a South Jersey native who played his sophomore season for Neumann-Goretti in Philadelphia and Gazaway is a transfer from Arkansas. Throw in a returning starter in Emmanuel Joe-Samuel averaging 17.3 points per game and the Panthers have the roster to overwhelm the entire Group II field on the way to a second straight state title.

Dark Horse: No. 10 Camden Eastside. The Tigers are used to competing against top-flight teams, especially Camden, so they will not be intimidated by anybody. While residing on the side of the bracket opposite Camden is a plus, potentially facing Middle Township in the second round would not be an easy task.

No. 12 Sterling, meanwhile, is stuck on the same side of the bracket as Camden, but is set up for a potential run to the semifinals to play the top-seeded Panthers. The Silver Knights drew No. 5 Overbrook in the first round and the second round looks like a potential showdown with No. 4 Cinnaminson – a manageable draw for a balanced, guard-heavy team that went 15-12 vs. a solid schedule.

Bracket Breakdown: Camden’s presence as a massive Goliath makes what could be an interesting bracket mostly cut-and-dried. Led by accomplished veteran guard Jamir McNeil, Middle Township would make for a worthy top seed and there are some potential sleepers in the field like Sterling, Camden Eastside, Overbrook, No. 8 Lower Cape May, No. 6 Haddonfield and Cinnaminson. As it is, Camden appears to have too much talent for any one of those teams to have a realistic shot, with Middle Township the possible lone exception.

Barnegat is the lone Shore Conference team to make the cut in South Jersey Group II and the Bengals could not have gotten a much worse draw. They will have to go on the road to play a very capable Lower Cape May squad that has a win over Atlantic City. If Barnegat can author a winning effort in round one, its reward will be a trip to Camden. A draw of the No. 10 seed and a potential second-round game vs. Middle Township would not have offered much hope for a semifinal run either, but it would have given Barnegat a better chance to compete at the end of what has been a strong season for the Bengals.

Championship Prediction: Camden over Middle Township. If any team in the section – and perhaps all of Group II – has a shot vs. Camden, it is a Middle team that has been through the postseason wars over the last two seasons with a lot of the current players along for that ride. On top of that, while supremely talented, this Camden squad has not been perfect. The three losses in the first five games of the season are not evidence of that since Munro, Brooks and Gazaway were not yet eligible, but the Panthers have losses to Paul VI and Roselle Catholic, as well as competitive games vs. Colonia, Bishop Eustace and Camden Eastside on their résumé. With home-court advantage, though, Camden will be hard to beat.

Round-by-Round Predictions

First Round
(1) Camden over (16) Pennsauken Tech
(8) Lower Cape May over (9) Barnegat
(12) Sterling over (5) Overbrook
(4) Cinnaminson over (13) Cedar Creek
(3) Medford Tech over (14) Mastery Camden
(6) Haddonfield over (11) Gloucester
(10) Camden Eastside over (7) Haddon Heights
(2) Middle Twp. over (15) Pleasantville

Quarterfinals
(1) Camden over (8) Lower Cape May
(12) Sterling over (4) Cinnaminson
(6) Haddonfield over (3) Medford Tech
(2) Middle Twp. over (10) Camden Eastside

Semifinals
(1) Camden over (12) Sterling
(2) Middle Twp. over (6) Haddonfield

Championship
(1) Camden over (2) Middle Twp.