Baseball SCT Watch: Projecting the 2025 Shore Conference Tournament, May 5 Update
With only 2 days until the Shore Conference Tournament field is finalized, it is time to start tracking the potential qualifiers as the May 7 cutoff approaches. The requirements to qualify for the Shore Conference Tournament and the seeding procedure have changed, so let’s start there.
- The SCT field will be determined by NJSIAA power points, which are determined by a formula that combines opponents’ win total and strength of schedule. The formula can be found in the NJSIAA Baseball Tournament rules and regulations.
- The Shore Conference teams will be ranked by power points and the top 24 as of 8 a.m. on May 7 will qualify for the SCT. If a team failed to rank in the top 24 teams by power points, but has clinched an outright Shore Conference division championship by the time of the seeding meeting at 7 p.m. on May 7, that team will qualify for the SCT.
- The teams that qualify for the SCT via power points or by division championship will then be seeded by a seeding committee of seven Shore Conference coaches — one from each of the seven Shore Conference divisions
For the full Shore Conference Tournament rules and regulations, click here.
This year’s Shore Conference Tournament is scheduled to be played within a span of 10 days, with the tournament opening on Saturday, May 10 and concluding on Monday, May 19 with the championship game at ShoreTown Ballpark in Lakewood. Here is the round-by-round schedule.
First Round: Saturday, May 10
Round of 16: Monday, May 12
Quarterfinals: Wednesday, May 14
Semifinals (at Central Regional): Saturday, May 17, 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.
Championship (at ShoreTown Ballpark, Lakewood): Monday, May 19, 7 p.m.
Once the participants in this year’s SCT are determined, the teams will be seeded in similar fashion to year’s past, although it remains to be seen how much power points will be used — if at all — at the seeding meeting. Since power points are part of the qualifying process, logic would dictate they are at least a consideration when ranking the teams that qualify, so that is how this projection will operate. With that said, here are the Shore Conference power-point rankings as they stand through games played on Sunday, May 4.
| Shore Rank | Team | PP/Game | NJSIAA Section | Section Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CBA | 30.593 | SJ Non-Pub A | 1 |
| 2 | Red Bank Catholic | 25.473 | SJ Non-Pub A | 3 |
| 3 | Toms River East | 24.512 | SJ3 | 2 |
| 4 | Brick Memorial | 22.431 | CJ3 | 2 |
| 5 | Colts Neck | 20.914 | CJ3 | 4 |
| 6 | Manasquan | 20.702 | CJ2 | 5 |
| 7 | Ranney | 20.318 | SJ Non-Pub B | 4 |
| 8 | Raritan | 19.798 | CJ2 | 8 |
| 9 | Jackson Memorial | 19.658 | CJ3 | 6 |
| 10 | Point Beach | 19.446 | CJ1 | 3 |
| 11 | Ocean | 19.283 | CJ2 | 12 |
| 12 | Southern | 18.918 | SJ4 | 7 |
| 13 | Holmdel | 18.637 | CJ2 | 14 |
| 14 | Howell | 18.628 | SJ4 | 8 |
| 15 | Wall | 18.348 | CJ2 | 15 |
| 16 | Toms River South | 18.156 | SJ3 | 9 |
| 17 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 17.92 | CJ2 | 16 |
| 18 | Monmouth | 17.883 | CJ2 | 17 |
| 19 | Brick | 17.814 | CJ3 | 7 |
| 20 | Toms River North | 17.521 | SJ4 | 11 |
| 21 | Middletown South | 17.244 | CJ3 | 8 |
| 22 | Central | 17.188 | SJ4 | 12 |
| 23 | Keansburg | 17.114 | CJ1 | 4 |
| 24 | Freehold Twp. | 16.679 | CJ4 | 7 |
| St. John Vianney | 15.946 | SJ Non-Pub A | 9 | |
| Barnegat | 15.844 | SJ2 | 7 | |
| Shore | 15.758 | CJ1 | 6 | |
| Middletown North | 15.304 | NJ2G3 | 11 | |
| Lacey | 14.962 | SJ3 | 13 | |
| Point Boro | 14.505 | CJ2 | 18 | |
| Freehold Boro | 14.264 | CJ3 | 13 | |
| Jackson Liberty | 13.828 | CJ2 | 19 | |
| Manchester | 13.096 | SJ2 | 9 | |
| Manalapan | 12.835 | CJ4 | 10 | |
| New Egypt | 12.753 | CJ1 | 12 | |
| Henry Hudson | 12.063 | CJ1 | 14 | |
| Matawan | 11.839 | NJ2G3 | 15 | |
| Red Bank | 11.831 | CJ3 | 16 | |
| Marlboro | 10.524 | CJ4 | 19 | |
| Keyport | 10.158 | CJ1 | 16 | |
| Long Branch | 9.476 | CJ3 | 17 | |
| Neptune | 9.342 | CJ3 | 18 | |
| Donovan Catholic | 9.269 | SJ Non-Pub A | 12 | |
| Lakewood | 9.224 | CJ3 | 20 | |
| St. Rose | 9.091 | SJ Non-Pub B | 9 | |
| Pinelands | 9.075 | SJ3 | 18 | |
| Asbury Park | 4.624 | CJ1 | 20 |
The projection that follows uses these power-point rankings as a framework, but there are circumstances in which teams with fewer power points can be seeded ahead of teams with more. Those circumstances fall in line with seeding criteria that has been used in years past.
- Head-to-head results
- Wins vs. teams in the field/top 10
- Losses vs. teams outside the field
- Results vs. common opponents
- Division record (comparing teams within the same division)
Keeping those criteria and the above power-point rankings in mind, here is the official Shore Sports Insider projection on May 5. You can consider the first 10 seeds this week’s Shore Sports Insider Top 10. We’ll be back Wednesday with one last look at the field before the tournament is seeded later that night.
Through games played on May 4
Disclaimer: Rain during the early-week forecast is likely to alter the schedules for several — if not all — teams in the running for the Shore Conference Tournament. The below projection is written with the assumption that games will be played. The more games that are postponed past the cut-off, the more likely it is the top 24 remains the same, but with some notable exceptions.
1. Christian Brothers Academy (14-1, 8-1)
Division Wins: Marlboro (2), Middletown North (2), Ranney (2), Middletown South, Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: At Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: At Brick Memorial, vs. Hun, Holmdel (MCT), vs. Moorestown, Raritan (MCT), Ranney (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: None
Before the Cutoff: Manalapan, at Manalapan
Seed Breakdown: With one loss (to the No. 2 team by a one-run margin) and the highest power-point average by a comfortable margin, CBA is just about a lock for the No. 1 seed. CBA has played four of the other nine teams ranked in the top 10 and gone 6-1 in those games, with wins over all four.
2. Red Bank Catholic (12-4, 7-4)
Division Wins: Manalapan (2), CBA, at Marlboro, Middletown North, Middletown South, at Ranney
Division Losses: At CBA, at Middletown North, at Middletown South, Ranney
Non-Division Wins: Jackson Memorial, vs. Morris Knolls, South Plainfield, Howell (MCT), Ocean (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: None
Before the Cutoff: Colts Neck (MCT), vs. Marlboro
Seed Breakdown: There is room for debate at No. 2, but Red Bank Catholic can go a long way toward ending that by beating Colts Neck on Monday in the Monmouth County Tournament semifinals. Losing to the Cougars opens things up for the Ocean County Tournament winning to swoop in and grab the No. 2 seed – both via power points and via a more qualitative interpretation of the résumés.
3. Brick Memorial (13-4, 8-2)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Southern (2), Wall (2), Jackson Memorial, at Toms River East
Division Losses: At Jackson Memorial, Toms River East
Non-Division Wins: Brick, Pinelands (OCT), Jackson Liberty, Barnegat (OCT), Southern (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: CBA, at Central
Before the Cutoff: Toms River East (OCT)
Seed Breakdown: Although Toms River East has a pretty substantial power-points lead on Brick Memorial, the Mustangs earned the advantage by winning the Class A South division championship – at least heading into Tuesday’s Ocean County Tournament final. The Mustangs and Raiders split the season series, so Tuesday’s rubber match will determine which team is the top public-school seed in the field, not to mention the Ocean County Tournament champion.
4. Toms River East (12-4, 6-4)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), at Brick Memorial, at Southern, at Wall
Division Losses: Brick Memorial, Jackson Memorial, Southern, Wall
Non-Division Wins: Barnegat, Jackson Liberty (OCT), vs. Rutherford, Brick (OCT), Colts Neck, at Point Beach
Non-Division Losses: None
Before the Cutoff: Vs. Brick Memorial (OCT)
Seed Breakdown: Even though Toms River East finished two games behind Brick Memorial in the Class A South division standings, the Raiders have the power-point advantage thanks to some impactful wins outside the division: Rutherford, Brick, Colts Neck and Point Beach. That list of wins makes up for losing out in the division race, but only if Toms River East can beat Brick Memorial in Tuesday’s OCT final. Whatever happens, the Raiders should stay ahead of Colts Neck thanks to the head-to-head win and may jump RBC should Colts Neck beat the Caseys on Monday.
5. Colts Neck (10-4, 7-2)
Division Wins: Matawan (2), Rumson-Fair Haven (2), at Howell, at Monmouth, at Shore
Division Losses: Howell, Monmouth
Non-Division Wins: Marlboro, Manasquan (MCT), Middletown South
Non-Division Losses: At Steinert, at Toms River East
Before the Cutoff: At Red Bank Catholic (MCT), Shore
Seed Breakdown: After Colts Neck’s bats went cold for a four-game stretch, the Cougar are red-hot again. They lost a 15-5 game at Toms River East that got out of hand in the latter innings, with the Cougars going with their depth pitchers rather than their top arms to deal with a potent Raiders lineup. A strong start to this week would give the Cougars a chance to surge into the top three, as well as a shot to play for the Monmouth County Tournament championship vs. CBA.
6. Ranney (9-5, 7-4)
Division Wins: Marlboro (2), Middletown South (2), Manalapan, at Middletown North, at Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: CBA (2), at Manalapan, Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Red Bank (MCT), Middletown North (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At CBA (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: None
Seed Breakdown: Ranney’s appeal as the No. 3 seed prior to last week was rooted in its losses. The Panthers had only lost to CBA and Red Bank Catholic heading into the middle of last week, but an extra-inning loss at Manalapan changes that profile. Still, Ranney has a win over Red Bank Catholic, has swept both Middletown South and Middletown North and was competitive in three losses to CBA. That is enough for the Panthers to slot in ahead of Manasquan, despite finishing lowing on the power-point table.
7. Manasquan (10-4, 7-2)
Division Wins: Central (2), St. Rose (2), Toms River North (2), Point Boro
Division Losses: At Point Boro, at Jackson Liberty
Non-Division Wins: Holmdel, Rumson-Fair Haven (MCT), at Wall
Non-Division Losses: Freehold Boro, at Colts Neck (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: Jackson Liberty
Seed Breakdown: Manasquan has been steady enough throughout the season to land at No. 6 in the power-point rankings, but all four of its losses are going to be scrutinized in the SCT meeting. Point Boro, Freehold Boro and Jackson Liberty are all virtually eliminated from the SCT and Manasquan’s only loss to a team in the field was an 11-0 drubbing at Colts Neck. On the positive side, the Warriors have three quality non-divisional wins over Holmdel, Rumson and Wall and a pitching staff that will make potential opponents uneasy if the Warriors are on their side of the bracket.
8. Point Pleasant Beach (13-4, 9-0)
Division Wins: Central (2), Jackson Liberty (2), Point Boro (2), St. Rose (2), at Toms River North
Division Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: At Donovan Catholic, at Brick, Donovan Catholic (OCT), Toms River South (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Toms River South, Manchester, at Barnegat, Toms River East (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: Toms River North
Seed Breakdown: Point Beach is leading Manasquan in the Class B South standings and could very well wrap up the division title before the seeding meeting on Monday, but the two teams won’t meet until the afternoon prior to meeting, so the power points are likely to remain on Manasquan’s side. On top of that, Point Beach will likely have to face hard-throwing ace Chase Kaplan on Wednesday at Manasquan, so the Garnet Gulls have their hands full trying to get to the No. 8 spot.
9. Jackson Memorial (9-6, 7-3)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Southern (2), at Brick Memorial, Toms River East, Wall
Division Losses: Brick Memorial, at Toms River East, at Wall
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Randolph (forfeit), at Manalapan
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank Catholic, Brick, Southern (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: None
Seed Breakdown: Jackson Memorial was awarded a forfeit win over Randolph due to a pitch-count violation, so the Jaguars are comfortably in the field after hanging uncomfortably close to the bubble last week. Wins over Toms River East and Brick Memorial are carrying the Jaguars résumé and might be enough to keep them ahead of Point Beach, but the loss to Brick – a team that Point Beach defeated – is the reason Point Beach is ahead in the seeding. The case for Jackson Memorial to get that No. 8 seed, however, is pretty straightforward: wins over two top-five teams, plus Point Beach’s losses to Manchester and Barnegat.
10. Raritan (11-5, 9-2)
Division Wins: Freehold Boro (2), Neptune (2), Red Bank (2), at Freehold Twp., Holmdel, at St. John Vianney
Division Losses: At Holmdel, St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: Monmouth, Wall (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: Shore, at Colonia, at CBA (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: Freehold Twp.
Seed Breakdown: The Rockets came back to Earth last week with losses to St. John Vianney and CBA, but are ready to re-launch this week as a top 10 team after picking up a huge road win over Freehold Township to end the week even higher in the power-point standings (eighth). Raritan now has its pitching lined up to finish off a division championship at home Tuesday vs. Freehold Township while also trying to protect its spot in the top 10. With Wall surging up the rankings, the Rockets are in good shape to stay at No. 10 thanks to a head-to-head win over Wall in the Monmouth County Tournament.
11. Wall (8-7, 5-5)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Jackson Memorial, Southern, at Toms River East
Division Losses: Brick Memorial (2), at Jackson Memorial, at Southern, Toms River East
Non-Division Wins: Toms River South, Middletown South, Long Branch (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Raritan (MCT), Manasquan
Before the Cutoff: At St. John Vianney
Seed Breakdown: Heading into last Sunday, Wall was not even in the top 24. A week later, the Crimson Knights are No. 15 on power points and have an ironclad case to be seeded ahead of the teams in the 11-to-14 range. Six of Wall’s seven losses are to teams in the top 10 and they also have wins over two of those teams (Toms River East and Jackson Memorial). The seventh loss is to Southern – a team firmly in the SCT field and a team Wall also beat during their Class A South series. This is the kind of résumé that makes a seeding meeting essential, because the power points are not doing Wall justice.
12. Southern (6-7, 3-6)
Division Wins: Donovan Catholic, Toms River East, Wall
Division Losses: Brick Memorial (2), Jackson Memorial (2), at Toms River East, at Wall
Non-Division Wins: At Jackson Memorial (OCT), at Central (OCT), at Manalapan
Non-Division Losses: At Brick Memorial (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: At Ocean City
Seed Breakdown: Southern has a lot of the same arguments that Wall has to be seeded higher than their power-point ranking, which is No. 12. The slight difference is the Rams are behind the Crimson Knights in the Class A South standings and will stay there, even if they win their makeup game vs. Donovan Catholic later this month. Other than that, the profiles are very close, with Southern countering Wall’s non-division wins over Toms River South and Middletown South with its own wins over Central and Manalapan.
13. Holmdel (12-4, 9-2)
Division Wins: Freehold Boro (2), Freehold Twp. (2), Neptune (2), Raritan, at Red Bank, St. John Vianney
Division Losses: At Raritan, at St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: St. Rose, Matawan (MCT), at Long Branch
Non-Division Losses: At Manasquan, at CBA (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: Red Bank
Seed Breakdown: Since losing an 8-7 heartbreaker to crosstown rival St. John Vianney on April 14, Holmdel has won nine out of 10, with its lone loss coming at CBA in the Monmouth County Tournament round of 16. The schedule has been much more forgiving than it was early in the year, when the Hornets opened the season with a one-run loss to Manasquan and division splits with Raritan and St. John Vianney, but Holmdel has enough to hold on to a home game if it can beat Red Bank on Tuesday and clinch a share of the Class C North title.
14. Ocean (11-5, 4-4)
Division Wins: Howell, Matawan, Monmouth, Shore
Division Losses: At Matawan, at Monmouth, at Rumson-Fair Haven, at Shore
Non-Division Wins: Manchester, vs. Birdlebough (N.Y.), vs. Tallwood (Va.), vs. Chesterfield (S.C.), Hillsborough, at Middletown South (MCT), at Red Bank
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank Catholic (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: Rumson-Fair Haven
Seed Breakdown: Ocean started last week ranked No. 4 at the Shore in power points, but a 1-3 week drops the Spartans out of the top 10. A loss to two-win Matawan is enough to move Ocean below Wall and Southern and stay behind Holmdel on a marginal power-point disadvantage, but the slide will stop if the Spartans can beat Rumson on Monday – a win that would also keep their slim hopes of a Class B North division title alive.
15. Toms River South (10-5, 7-2)
Division Wins: Manchester (2), Pinelands (2), Barnegat, at Lacey, New Egypt
Division Losses: At Barnegat, at New Egypt
Non-Division Wins: Point Beach, Point Boro (OCT), Howell
Non-Division Losses: At Wall, Toms River North, at Point Beach (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: Lacey
Seed Breakdown: Toms River South’s six-game winning streak ended with a loss to rival Toms River North last week and the Indians suffered another setback with a 24-5 loss to Point Beach in the OCT quarterfinals. Since that one-sided loss, however, Toms River South has showed its resolve by handling Lacey in an important Class C South division game, then beating Howell in a rain-shortened affair. At the moment, that win over Howell might be what lands Toms River South a home game in the first round.
16. Howell (10-8, 6-5)
Division Wins: Shore (2), at Colts Neck, Matawan, at Monmouth, Rumson-Fair Haven
Division Losses: Colts Neck, at Matawan, Monmouth, at Ocean, at Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Wins: At Bridgewater-Raritan, St. John Vianney (MCT), Middletown North, Point Boro
Non-Division Losses: At Freehold Twp., at Red Bank Catholic (MCT), at Toms River South
Before the Cutoff: None
Seed Breakdown: If a team like Wall is going to climb three spots from the power-point list to the real thing, there has to be a team that goes in the other direction. The Rebels have a blowout win over Colts Neck that should carry plenty of weight, but a few factors are holding them back. A 12-2 loss to Freehold Township keeps Howell behind Holmdel, which swept Freehold Township in divisional play. A loss to Matawan is also an anchor on the résumé, although not any more than Toms River South’s loss to New Egypt. That is why that five-inning loss at Toms River South is such a rough one. If nothing else, that win over Colts Neck should get Howell a home game – perhaps even more of Colts Neck beats RBC on Monday.
17. Middletown South (7-8, 5-5)
Division Wins: Manalapan (2), Marlboro (2), Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: Ranney (2), at CBA, at Middletown North, at Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Rumson-Fair Haven (MCT), at Allentown
Non-Division Losses: Ocean (MCT), at Colts Neck, at Wall
Before the Cutoff: Middletown North
Seed Breakdown: Middletown South was in the mix for a top-five seed a little more than a week ago, but has fallen on hard times and is now in danger of missing the tournament. A win over Middletown North on Tuesday would lock in the Eagles’ spot and even with a loss, there is still a way for Middletown South to back in if the other teams on the bubble (Freehold Township, Barnegat, Lacey, St. John Vianney, Shore) all lose. If the Eagles get in, a win over Red Bank Catholic is enough to slot them ahead of several teams in this area of the seeding and a win over Rumson certainly puts them ahead of the Bulldogs.
18. Central (11-6, 4-5)
Division Wins: Jackson Liberty (2), at St. Rose, Toms River North
Division Losses: Manasquan (2), Point Beach (2), at Toms River North
Non-Division Wins: Lacey, Freehold Boro, at Pinelands, Brick Memorial, Red Bank, New Egypt (OCT), New Egypt
Non-Division Losses: Southern (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: St. Rose
Seed Breakdown: There are teams getting hurt by bad losses and then there is Central, which is getting hurt by “bad wins.” By power-point value, wins over St. Rose (1-11) and Pinelands (2-13) have the impact of losses on the résumé, while wins over teams like Jackson Liberty (5-10), Toms River North (5-7), New Egypt (4-8) and Red Bank (5-12) don’t hurt, but they are light on points. None of Central’s losses, meanwhile, are all that bad, with only Toms River North ranked outside the top 12. On top of that, the Golden Eagles beat Brick Memorial, which has a chance to rank as high as No. 2. Why does all this matter? Because Central could beat St. Rose on Monday and its power-point average will drop because of how little value a win over the Purple Roses is worth right now. There are as many as six teams not currently in the field of 24 that could jump Central even if the Golden Eagles win on Monday. It is the rare scenario in which a rainout would be the best outcome.
19. Rumson-Fair Haven (10-7, 7-4)
Division Wins: Matawan (2), Shore (2), Howell, Monmouth, Ocean
Division Losses: Colts Neck (2), at Howell, at Monmouth
Non-Division Wins: Point Boro, at Red Bank, Marlboro
Non-Division Losses: At Manasquan (MCT), at Middletown South (MCT), Caldwell
Before the Cutoff: At Ocean
Seed Breakdown: The Bulldogs’ résumé is about as middle-of-the-road as any team in the tournament. They have divisional splits with Howell and Monmouth, a home win over Ocean with another game vs. the Spartans scheduled before the cutoff, and no bad losses within their body of work. On the flip side, Rumson also has not jumped up and beaten a top 10 team and its three wins outside the division are against teams that will not make the SCT.
20. Monmouth (7-8, 5-6)
Division Wins: At Colts Neck, at Howell, Matawan, Ocean, Rumson-Fair Haven
Division Losses: Shore (2), Colts Neck, Howell, at Ocean, at Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Wins: St. John Vianney (MCT), Shore (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: St. Rose (MCT), at Raritan
Before the Cutoff: At Matawan
Seed Breakdown: The Falcons have a similar problem to the one Central faces, but there are two key differences. A win over Matawan is worth more than a win over St. Rose, so while beating the Huskies Monday would drop Monmouth’s power-points-per-game, it would not put the Falcons in danger of missing the tournament. That is because Monmouth is starting the week with a better power-point situation than Central as well, at almost a full point-per game more. With one of the best pitchers in the Shore Conference on the roster in Collin Denton, Monmouth will be a fascinating seeding case. The Falcons knocked off Colts Neck with Denton on the mound, but also beat Ocean without him pitching.
21. Brick (10-5, 7-0)
Division Wins: Manchester (2), New Egypt (2), Barnegat, Lacey, Pinelands
Division Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: At Jackson Memorial, vs. Bandys (N.C.), Toms River North (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: Point Beach, at Brick Memorial, Austintown-Fitch (Oh.), at Toms River East (OCT), Toms River North
Before the Cutoff: At Barnegat
Seed Breakdown: Brick doesn’t have a bad loss, which its worst loss coming to a Toms River North team that is going to make the tournament. The bad news is the Green Dragons are limited in their big wins, with an April win over Jackson Memorial the only one that is really carrying the résumé, and that is more based on Jackson Memorial’s own résumé rather than a huge power-point haul. A win over Barnegat would likely be enough to boost Brick into the top 16 of the power-point rankings should both Toms River South and Rumson lose, but the seeding committee would have the final say whether or not Brick’s body of work is worthy of a guaranteed home game.
22. Toms River North (5-7, 3-6)
Division Wins: Central, at Jackson Liberty, at Point Boro
Division Losses: Manasquan (2), at Central, Jackson Liberty, Point Beach, Point Boro
Non-Division Wins: At Toms River South, at Brick
Non-Division Losses: At Brick (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: At Point Beach
Seed: Breakdown: Toms River North’s wins over Toms River South and Brick last week basically secured the Mariners a spot in the Shore Conference Tournament despite a guaranteed sub-.500 record through Tuesday and the absence of a win over a team ranked higher than 16 on the power-point list. That is because Toms River North does not have to play St. Rose until after the cutoff – a quirk in the power-point system that punishes teams for beating opponents with one or two wins. While Central is dealing with the pitfalls of that system, Toms River North has avoided it and done well enough against a solid collection of teams – including a head-to-head series split with Central. A loss to Point Beach on Monday would be worth more than some wins on power points, but the Mariners would like to make a statement by beating the Garnet Gulls – especially after losing to Point Beach in extra innings last week.
23. Freehold Township (7-6, 6-5)
Division Wins: Freehold Boro (2), St. John Vianney (2), at Neptune, Red Bank
Division Losses: Holmdel (2), Neptune, Raritan, at Red Bank
Non-Division Wins: Howell
Non-Division Losses: At Roxbury
Before the Cutoff: At Raritan
Seed Breakdown: Freehold Township doesn’t necessarily have to win Tuesday at Raritan to make the Shore Conference Tournament, but the Patriots would need a lot of help to get in after another loss to the Rockets, which won a 6-5 nail-biter over Freehold Township to end last week. On the other hand, Freehold Township can send Jackson Redmond to the mound against a Raritan team that looked more beatable last week and a win would guarantee Freehold Township a place in the SCT.
24. Keansburg (7-1, 7-1)
Division Wins: Lakewood (2), Long Branch (2), at Asbury Park, Henry Hudson, at Keyport
Division Losses: At Henry Hudson
Non-Division Wins: None
Non-Division Losses: None
Before the Cutoff: At East Brunswick Magnet
Seed Breakdown: Keansburg can clinch the outright division title required to make the SCT by beating Keyport on Wednesday, but the Titans can still get in without that division title — and it might not even require a win this week. East Brunswick Magnet is a 15-2 opponent, so even a loss would keep the Titans at a number that will keep them in the mix if a slew of bubble teams win on Monday and Tuesday and definitely in if the bubble bursts for all but one or two of them. Once in, however, the Titans are probably going to draw the ire of the seeding committee for playing only nine games before the power-point cutoff, which is five fewer than the next closest team that has any chance to make the tournament. East Brunswick Magnet will be Keansburg’s first opponent outside the Shore Conference and while the Tigers have a gaudy record, it is the product of a solid team playing a very weak schedule. Still, if Keansburg can win that game on Monday, perhaps that’s enough to seed the Titans closer to the teens and see if they can live up to the billing.
The SCT Bubble
As of Monday morning, six teams not currently in the top 24 still have a mathematical chance to make the Shore Conference Tournament. All of them need to win their games scheduled for early in the week and a few of them need some additional help, whether it is a loss by Freehold Township and the other bubble teams, or to score residual points elsewhere in the form of teams on their résumé winning their games.
St. John Vianney (7-7, 7-5)
Division Wins: Neptune (2), Red Bank (2), Holmdel, at Freehold Boro, at Raritan
Division Losses: Freehold Twp. (2), Freehold Boro, at Holmdel, Raritan
Non-Division Wins: None
Non-Division Losses: At Howell (MCT), at Monmouth (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: Wall, at Manchester
How They Qualify: Since St. John Vianney is playing a Wall team worth fewer power points than the opponents of Shore and Barnegat are worth, the Lancers are more likely to need help from more than one team to get in. The Lancers also have to win an additional game scheduled at Manchester on Tuesday, so the formula for SJV is to beat both Wall and Manchester and get losses by two of Freehold Township, Barnegat and Shore. If two of those three lose and SJV delivers on its end, it will be a razor-thin margin between Central and SJV for the last spot, assuming Central beats St. Rose.
Barnegat (8-8, 5-5)
Division Wins: Pinelands (2), Lacey, at New Egypt, Toms River South
Division Losses: Manchester (2), at Brick, at Lacey, at Toms River South
Non-Division Wins: Vs. J.P. Stevens, at Lacey (OCT), Point Beach
Non-Division Losses: At Toms River East, at Point Boro, at Brick Memorial (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: Brick
How They Qualify: If Barnegat beats Brick on Monday, the Bengals are most likely in ahead of Central, although residual points could come into play – especially if Shore also wins its game vs. Colts Neck. If the Bengals lose, the outcome is much simpler: they are out. If they don’t play, they need Freehold Township to play and lose.
Shore (9-8, 5-6)
Division Wins: Matawan (2), Monmouth (2), Ocean
Division Losses: Howell (2), Rumson-Fair Haven (2), Colts Neck, at Ocean
Non-Division Wins: At Pinelands, at Raritan, at Matawan (MCT), Long Branch
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank (MCT), at Monmouth (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: At Colts Neck
How They Qualify: Shore will be rooting for Raritan to beat Freehold Township and Brick to beat Barnegat, but the most important element for the Blue Devils is to bounce back from a 24-1 drubbing at the hands of Colts Neck and beat the Cougars in the rematch. It is close enough between Shore and Barnegat that residual points earned over the next two days could determine which team has more power points come Wednesday morning, but if both win, there is a good chance both would make it over Central.
Middletown North (7-8, 4-6)
Division Wins: Manalapan, at Marlboro, Middletown South, Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: CBA (2), at Manalapan, Marlboro, Ranney, at Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Glen Ridge, Rahway, St. Rose (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Howell, at Ranney (MCT)
Before the Cutoff: Long Branch, at Middletown South
How They Qualify: The Lions need to play both its games on the schedule prior to the cutoff to have a chance to qualify, but if they can the games in, their chances are promising. A win over Long Branch would boost Middletown North enough that a Tuesday win at Middletown South – likely with senior ace Zach Hampton on the mound – would bump the Lions into the cluster with Middletown South, Central and any winners out of Barnegat, Shore and St. John Vianney. At that point, it’s again coming down to residual points.
Lacey (8-5, 5-3)
Division Wins: New Egypt (2), Pinelands (2), Barnegat
Division Losses: At Barnegat, at Brick, Toms River South
Non-Division Wins: At Red Bank, at Neptune, at Point Boro
Non-Division Losses: At Central, Barnegat (OCT)
Before the Cutoff: At Toms River South
How They Qualify: A game at Toms River South represents a potential power-point haul that would give the Lions a chance to get into the SCT with some help. Losses by Freehold Township, Barnegat, Shore, St. John Vianney and Middletown North would put Lacey in a win-and-in situation, but the Lions may not necessarily need every one of those teams to lose if some teams like New Egypt, Neptune and Point Boro can win and bump up Lacey’s number via residual points.
Manalapan (6-11, 4-6)
Division Wins: Marlboro (2), Middletown North, Ranney
Division Losses: Middletown South (2), Red Bank Catholic (2), at Middletown North, at Ranney
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Mamaroneck (N.Y.), vs. Bishop Fenwick (Oh.)
Non-Division Losses: Vs. White Plains (N.Y.), at Robbinsville, Jackson Memorial, Southern, vs. Freehold Boro
Before the Cutoff: At CBA, CBA
How They Qualify: Not only is Manalapan behind the five bubble teams listed above on power points; the Braves are also behind Point Boro, Freehold Boro, Jackson Liberty and Manchester at the start of the week. So how is Manalapan still alive while those four are not? One word: opportunity. It would take beating the No. 1 team in the Shore Conference twice in two days, but if the Braves can fight off the rain, play both games and somehow upset the Colts twice, they are a lock to get in. One win, however, won’t be enough.
Projected Pairings
Opening Round
(24) Keansburg at (9) Jackson Memorial
(23) Freehold Twp. at (10) Raritan
(22) Toms River North at (11) Wall
(21) Brick at (12) Southern
(20) Monmouth at (13) Holmdel
(19) Central at (14) Ocean
(18) Rumson-Fair Haven at (15) Toms River South
(17) Middletown South at (16) Howell
Round of 16
(17) Middletown South/(16) Howell at (1) CBA
(18) Rumson-Fair Haven/(15) Toms River South at (2) Red Bank Catholic
(19) Central/(14) Ocean at (3) Brick Memorial
(20) Monmouth/(13) Holmdel at (4) Toms River East
(21) Brick/(12) Southern at (5) Colts Neck
(22) Toms River Nroth/(11) Wall at (6) Ranney
(23) Freehold Twp./(10) Raritan at (7) Manasquan
(24) Keansburg/(9) Jackson Memorial at (8) Point Beach
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